Gov. Ron DeSantis redrew Florida’s 14th Congressional District to retire U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor. A new St. Pete Polls survey suggests it may not work.
The survey shows the Tampa Democrat leading both top Republicans vying to replace her. Castor tops former state Rep. Mike Beltran 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided. Against state Rep. Kevin Steele, she leads 46% to 39%, with 15% undecided.
The new map made CD 14 far more Republican. About 55% of voters in the redrawn district supported Donald Trump for President in 2024, while about 44% backed Democrat Kamala Harris.
On paper, Republicans should win this seat by double digits. The poll says otherwise, at least for now.
That raises a question Democrats have been asking since the mid-decade redistricting push began: Did Republicans draw a dummymander? The term refers to a gerrymander that backfires, whether by spreading friendly voters too thin or by underestimating the incumbent it was meant to bury.
Castor said within days of the map’s passage that she would run again in the reshaped Hillsborough-based seat.
There is a caveat for Democrats. Castor sits at 46% in both matchups, short of a majority, and undecided voters in a district Trump carried by 10 points may not break her way. Still, after 20 years in Congress, her name recognition gives her a head start on two Republicans who have never appeared on a ballot in most of the district.
The Republicans also have a Primary to settle first. Beltran leads the eight-candidate field with 30%, followed by Steele at 18%. No other candidate cracks 3%, and 46% of Republican respondents are undecided.
Beltran’s lead comes despite Steele’s early spending and endorsements. Steele has lent his campaign $2.5 million and picked up support from Florida’s elected Cabinet and the region’s most prominent Sheriffs.
Beltran, a Riverview lawyer who served three terms in the Florida House, entered the race in May with a pledge of at least $1 million of his own money.
Associated Builders and Contractors Florida Gulf Coast Chapter commissioned the independent poll to gain a better understanding of the issues and priorities that matter most to voters in Florida’s Congressional District 14.
“Our mission is to advocate for policies that strengthen Florida’s workforce, economy, and construction industry. Understanding the priorities of voters is an important part of that effort, and we hope this poll contributes to a thoughtful conversation about the future of Congressional District 14,” said ABC Florida Gulf Coast Chapter President and CEO Steve Cona III.
The poll surveyed 469 likely CD 14 voters July 14-15 through a combination of automated phone calls (37% of respondents) and peer-to-peer text messages (63%), with results weighted by political party, race, age and gender to match the district’s active voter population.
The General Election questions carry a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level; the Republican Primary questions, drawn from a separate sample of 376 registered Republicans, carry a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
The Republican Primary is Aug. 18. The winner faces Castor in November.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
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