U.S. Rep. Darren Soto feels certain a redraw of Florida’s 9th Congressional District violates the state constitution. He also feels confident he can win there anyway.
The same day that Gov. Ron DeSantis enacted a new map that cracks Soto’s Puerto Rican constituency into five districts and puts Kissimmee and Moore Haven into the same constituency, the Democratic incumbent said any effort to take away his seat will fail.
“If I can’t beat him at the courthouse, I’ll have to beat him at the ballot box,” Soto said in an exclusive with Florida Politics.
That’s significant bravado from the Kissimmee Democrat, who was already a target this cycle of the National Republican Congressional Committee. That was before new cartography put him in a race just classified by Sabato’s Crystal Ball as “Likely Republican.”
Under the old lines for CD 9, about 51.2% of voters supported Kamala Harris for President in 2024, but under the new CD 9 boundaries, more than 58.2% cast ballots for Republican Donald Trump.
Courtroom battle
The shift overnight turned Soto into Florida’s most endangered congressional incumbent. He said that happened because of a clearly illegal partisan gerrymander conducted by DeSantis.
“They couldn’t have made it more of a violation. It’s partisan, discriminatory, ignores city and local county boundaries. It isn’t compact,” he said.
“I guess we’re going to find out what’s more important, whether it’s the constitution or the fact that DeSantis appointed six out of the seven Justices. But under any even remotely reasonable reading of the constitution, and that is my legal opinion as an attorney admitted to the Florida Bar, this map is wholly unconstitutional and should be struck down.”
Three lawsuits have already been filed in Leon County circuit court challenging the map, with one seeking an injunction to stop its use in the Midterms.
Sources close to the Governor say the late passage of the map could trigger the Purcell principle, a legal precedent that often delays redistricting challenges until after elections. But Soto said if the Purcell principle applies here, it should mean Florida defaults to 2022 district lines, arguing the enactment of a constitution-flouting map should be held until court proceedings conclude.
“The status quo is the map that’s already been approved by the Supreme Court,” he said.
Whenever a challenge does move forward, Soto said courts should reject arguments laid out by DeSantis and his legal counsel that challenge both the federal Voting Rights Act (VRA) and the Fair Districts amendment in the state constitution.
DeSantis has said the recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, which weakens majority minority district protections in the VRA, mandates a shift away from drawing lines line Soto’s old seat that are dominated by ethnic populations. Ironically, it was also DeSantis’ Office that first drew CD 9 as a majority Hispanic seat in 2022.
Soto acknowledges it’s unclear if that district was federally protected, but it’s wrong to say Callais justifies a new map. Perhaps most important to current challenges, the high court opinion also did not prohibit any states from imposing their own rules on redistricting, such as the Fair Districts amendment.
“First of all, Callais did not strike down the Voting Rights Act. It did carve a partisan loophole that isn’t relevant to Florida, and also made sure to ratify that states can have their own rules,” Soto said.
“If you don’t have an invalidation of the VRA, then you don’t have an invalidation of the diminishment clause of the (Florida) Constitution. And certainly, even if that were true, which it’s not, under severability, you would still construe the rest of the amendment. It wouldn’t just eliminate the entire amendment. Like, you learn that in your first year of law school.”
But the state Supreme Court has often shown itself to be friendly to DeSantis legal arguments. If that proves true again, Soto said he’s prepared to deliver DeSantis a political embarrassment in November by winning another term.
Campaign trail
While Soto has been a target of House Republicans all cycle, that hasn’t been reflected in the roster of candidates filed against him. While six Republicans have filed against Soto, most have raised less than $100,000 for the race. The only exception has been Thomas Chalifoux, who has reported $2.3 million almost entirely through self-funding. Soto in 2024 beat Chalifoux with more than 55% of the vote.
But the new lines have drawn interests from other candidates, including Osceola County Commissioner Ricky Booth and former state Reps. Mike de la Rosa and Jason Fischer.
Still, Soto said he’s prepared to defend his seat and intends to fight for CD 9. He notes that in 2020, more than 46% of voters under the new lines supported Democrat Joe Biden for President. In 2016, 47% supported Democrat Hillary Clinton. And Soto has a history of overperforming the top of the ticket.
“It is definitely a winnable seat, especially at a time when we see Special Elections going 10% to 15% toward Democrats, and the reasons are obvious,” Soto said. “Costs are rising, bankruptcies are up, foreclosures are up. Unemployment is up. People are frustrated with the economy, and Trump’s approval ratings reflect that, because people are upset.”
The district now spans a large area of the Florida Heartland, shedding urban areas of Orlando and greater Kissimmee to take on rural areas as far south as Moore Haven while also picking up Indian River County.
But Soto notes he has been a friend of Florida’s farming community for years — both in Congress, where he previously served on the House Agriculture Committee, and in the Florida Senate before that.
“Certainly the farmers and the Everglades agriculture area, they’re already supporting me,” Soto said. “I work very closely with the Florida Farm Bureau and with the farmers down in that area. The main issue right now is, how do you address tariffs and the rising fuel costs and the fertilizer costs and the labor issues?”
Those issues are all problems for Republicans, Soto said. Meanwhile, Soto has crossed the aisle, as he did on a recent Farm Bill vote, when it meant supporting the needs of agriculture. While not every voter in the Florida Heartland may be as familiar with his record, Soto said he has political allies who will spread the message, including in groups like the Florida Cattlemen’s Association.
He expects Hispanic voters from several communities to support him, not just the Puerto Rican community of which he is a member. Whether voters have roots in Venezuela, Mexico or Brazil, they have reason to fear Trump’s immigration policies and isolationism. Soto through a discharge petition recently forced a House vote on restoring temporary protected status to Venezuelans.
Meanwhile, deportation policies have broken up mixed-status families, weakened the labor force for agriculture and hospitality, all while health are costs and home insurance rates soar in the region.
“People in Central Florida are angry, not just the Puerto Rican community, but all of Central Florida,” he said. “We’re one of the biggest economic engines in the state, and our delegation is scattered to the wind. A lot of folks are frustrated and they’re eager to vote.”
He thinks the intense anti-Trump swings in Special Election results show voters feeling buyer’s remorse even if they voted for Trump in 2024.
Is Soto prepared to capitalize on that? As of the end of the first quarter, the Democratic incumbent has raised a little more than $1.2 million cash on hand and closed March with about $833,000. That’s less many incumbents who have been bracing for a tough fight all cycle — Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar closed the quarter with almost $2 million cash, by contrast — but Soto said he can rally support for a fight.
“There’s been no investment, and now there’s about to be,” he said. “I work hard to raise the resources. Often they come when people see you’re in need, and there’s a lot of different groups who can help out.”
The new map generated fresh chatter whether he would run in a district besides CD 9. Some wondered if he would end up in a Democratic Primary against U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost, rumors Soto has batted down for months, or if he may challenge scandalized Republican U.S. Rep. Cory Mills. But Soto said he never intended to run in a seat that didn’t include his Kissimmee home.
“This is my home,” he said. “It’s about representing a community, not just any community just to be in Congress.”
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