Who’s in second place in the Republican race for President? One betting odds aggregator says it’s not Florida’s Governor.
The Election Betting Odds site, which draws on the Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, and Polymarket platforms, has Vivek Ramaswamy ahead of Ron DeSantis.
A fifth of a percentage point separates the two men as of Sunday morning. DeSantis is given an 8.7% chance of winning the GOP nomination, Ramaswamy 8.9%. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is way ahead at 71.1%.
If there is a positive for DeSantis, it’s that he has a strong hold on third place: Sen. Tim Scott is far back, given just a 3.1% chance of winning by investors. That said, Ramaswamy’s surge seems to be coming at DeSantis’ expense, and may be seen as a validation of what his campaign is saying about the vulnerable Florida Governor.
“Vivek has seen rapid movement in polling and is on track to eclipse DeSantis,” reads a 14-page memo to supporters that cites four polls that indicate Ramaswamy surging, including a Kaplan Strategies poll that shows him tied with DeSantis at 12% support.
The memo contends that “over the last 45 days,” the campaign has had the most “sustained growth and success” of any operation in the Republican field, offering the “best return on investment” as measured by “ballot growth” and “image growth.”
“Vivek is spending significantly less than his competitors on traditional advertising per percentage point in national polls, proving his message and vision lands with the GOP electorate. This is a likely prediction of who will succeed in the 2024 election when comparing spending in 2015 to 2023.”
The momentum has also been reflected in online searches: “Earlier this month, Vivek has passed Ron DeSantis in total Google Search traffic for the first time since DeSantis entered the race.”
DeSantis has attacked various other Republicans, including Nikki Haley for courting the Walt Disney Company, Scott for questioning Florida educational standards asserting that slavery had benefits to the enslaved, and Trump for various issues. He hasn’t said much about Ramaswamy yet. These odds suggest it may be time for the Governor to engage, however.
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