A pollster with Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial campaign questioned poll findings that show Casey DeSantis leading a hypothetical GOP Primary for Governor.
Tony Fabrizio has long worked with President Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns and signed on with Donalds’ gubernatorial effort early. He voiced skepticism over findings by the James Madison Institute that DeSantis, if she launched a campaign for Governor, would lead Donalds with 26% support to Donalds’ 23%.
“Waking up to another questionable JMI poll is reminiscent of the many days during the 2024 Presidential campaign where we had to battle back one bad media or special interest group poll after another,” Fabrizio wrote in a memo about the poll. “And while JMI may be on target when it comes to conservative policy initiatives, their polling track record and methodology leaves something to be desired.”
Fabrizio said he questioned any poll that didn’t include a key fact about Donalds’ candidacy — that the Congressman is endorsed by Trump. The President encouraged the Naples Republican to run for Governor, and many staffers working with Donalds now are connected to Trump’s previous campaigns for higher office.
Fabrizio noted that prior polls, including one commissioned by Florida Politics, showed Trump’s support has significant influence on Republican voters, and that the needle moves toward Donalds when voters learn the President already made his preference known.
“The fact remains that Byron Donalds leads every permutation of the GOP gubernatorial primary out of the gate,” Fabrizio wrote. “And his lead dramatically expands when voters know about President Trump’s endorsement. Every properly conducted survey bears this out, and voters will too in next year’s Republican primary.”
Fabrizio also questioned the broad sample of Florida registered Republican voters used in the survey, rather than filtering down to those voters who regularly vote in Republican Primaries. The August 2026 contest to determine a GOP nominee is presumably where Donalds and DeSantis would face one another on a ballot.
“Despite asking the respondents the likelihood of voting in the Primary for Governor, they DO NOT ask the ballot questions to ONLY likely Primary voters,” Fabrizio noted. “Instead, they continue to ask the ballot test questions to all GOP voters. Any casual political observer knows that Primary voters are a subset of a party’s overall pool of voters and are oftentimes more strident (than) the party overall.”
The post Tony Fabrizio slams methodology on poll showing Byron Donalds behind Casey DeSantis appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..