As Gov. Ron DeSantis readies a formal launch to his 2024 presidential campaign, one average of national polling finds him at a low point.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average pegs DeSantis at just under 20% support in the 2024 Republican Primary field.
Former President Donald Trump boasts nearly 57% support in the same metric.
This is the worst RCP average for DeSantis since before the November 2022 election.
The tipping point poll appears to be a recent survey from the Trump-friendly Rasmussen Reports, which shows the former President with 62% support and DeSantis with 17%. That is one of several polls that show the Governor’s support under the 20% threshold.
Two other prominent polling averages are better for DeSantis.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average has DeSantis at just over 21%, with Trump still holding majority support at 53%.
The Race to the White House average is even more forgiving to the Florida Governor. Trump only musters 53% support in that model, with DeSantis’ nearly 22% standing as the best of the three major averages.
Race to the White House also offers a delegate forecast based on state polling, which suggests the race is Trump’s to lose. In a crowded field, the former President is predicted to amass 1,788 delegates, with DeSantis taking 598. Just 1,234 are needed to win.
In a field that consolidates to a two-man race after Nevada, Trump draws 1,560 delegates, with DeSantis taking 895.
The open question going forward is how the Governor’s formal launch of his campaign, reported to be May 25, will affect these dynamics. DeSantis is expected to file paperwork and formally launch in Dunedin, the Gulf Coast community where he grew up.
The Governor is also expected to meet with donors next week in Miami, with those supporters in turn soliciting more financial support for the 2024 operation.
DeSantis is amassing endorsements already, including from 99 Republican members of the Florida Legislature, 51 among New Hampshire elected officials, and three dozen endorsements from Iowa legislators.
Expect more endorsements to come out with an eye toward establishing DeSantis as the Trump alternative in what is an increasingly crowded field.
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