A new Insider Advantage Iowa poll tells a familiar story, but the crosstabs suggest potential variation.
The survey of 850 likely Republican voters finds Donald Trump with 51% support, and Ron DeSantis tied with Nikki Haley at 17% overall.
This is a better survey for the Governor than either of the two that came out on Thursday, both of which showed DeSantis down by 41 points.
But looming over this survey and the caucuses themselves is the arctic chill forecast for Monday, with temperatures expected to stay well below 0 degrees.
“It is very difficult to determine if the projected weather could impact voter intensity for any particular candidate,” said pollster Matt Towery.
With that in mind, a review of where specific cohorts are leaning in the race may provide insight on which of the two second-place candidates is most competitive with Trump Monday.
DeSantis performs the best here with younger voters.
Among those under the age of 40, the Florida Governor has 21% support, well ahead of Haley’s 12%, and close to half of Trump’s 43% with the same demographic.
So if there’s a youth movement Monday night, that’s a positive for DeSantis.
However, older voters are a different story, one that could be bad news for the scion of the Sunshine State given that they historically are higher-propensity than the young.
Among voters between 40 and 64 years old, Trump has 53% support, with Haley at 16% and DeSantis at 14%.
DeSantis’ deficit is even wider with senior citizens.
Among voters over the age of 65, the Governor has 17% support, 5 points behind Haley, and 37 points behind Trump.
DeSantis says he’s confident that the work done over the last few months will bear fruit.
“Now with this weather, I think the organization is going to matter even more because going out in negative 20 degrees, unless you’re really committed to voting, that’s an easy reason why you wouldn’t want to go,” DeSantis told Sean Hannity Thursday.
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