New polling suggests Gov. Ron DeSantis may face a problem if he runs for the United States presidency in 2024, specifically if the GOP field is crowded as widely expected.
A Harvard-Harris survey in the field on Dec. 14 and 15 showed DeSantis topping former President Donald Trump if a head-to-head national Presidential Primary between the two were hypothetically possible.
Per the poll analysis, a two-way battle between DeSantis and Trump is an “open fight,” with Trump controlling the “hard GOP base.” But when factoring in GOP-leaning independent registered voters, DeSantis tops Trump in the national scenario, with 52% support against 48% for the former President.
That’s the best scenario for Trump in the poll. When independents are out of the sample, GOP registrants remain loyal to Trump. The former President’s 55% is suitable for a double-digit lead against DeSantis.
The less-than-rousing news from this poll continues when a larger hypothetical field of candidates is tested. Trump secures a full 48% in this scenario, 25 points ahead of DeSantis’ distant second. Voters who are unsure or want someone else total 11%, ahead of the third-place finisher: former Vice President Mike Pence, who garnered 6% support.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley had 4% backing, while U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had 2% each. At 1% were Tim Scott and Marco Rubio.
DeSantis’ path seems to mostly depend on whether Trump runs. Without the former President in the field, the Governor gets 48% support. Second-place finisher Pence was the only other candidate in double-digits in this scenario, with 15% support. Haley had 5%, Pompeo and Rubio 3%, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott had 2% support. The other 19% wanted someone else or were otherwise unsure.
If DeSantis does secure the nomination, the poll has good news for him: he’s up in head-to-head hypothetical General Elections against both President Joe Biden (43% to 39%) and Vice President Kamala Harris (45% to 40%).
But to get to November, the Governor must get the delegates at the 2024 Republican National Convention, and this poll outlines a potential complication ahead.
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