Gov. Ron DeSantis says that the latest congressional redistricting map passed by the Legislature, which guts minority-access districts that complied with traditional readings of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, could end up being a net positive for Democrats.
“Republicans throughout the years have been the most aggressive supporters of these VRA districts, because their view is, if you pack in Black voters into a district and make it like an 80% (Black district), then all the surrounding areas are going to be red. And so if you have normal districts, well, guess what? There’s going to be more Dems in all those districts and maybe they can be winnable,” DeSantis said.
He was quick to add that Democrats have a “tough ticket to ride” in the Sunbelt because they are “nuts,” but reiterated his read of the traditional GOP calculus that saw White Republicans and Black Democrats align to hold up majority-minority districts.
“So if you have a certain area, one is blue, three is red, no matter what happens, wave, no wave, it doesn’t matter. Whereas if you just had four normal districts, it’s possible it would be four red, but could also be 2-2 in some cycles, and I think they didn’t want to do that. They wanted to make sure they continue,” DeSantis said.
He predicted “some interesting dynamics about how this all plays out politically.”
“None of these coalitions are ever set in stone,” he said during a meeting of the Federalist Society on Thursday
DeSantis’ comments are particularly interesting given that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has suggested that the new map, which is expected to give Republicans as many as 24 of the state’s 28 Congressional seats, amounts to a “dummymander.”
Florida first established minority-performing districts in the 1990s after a court decision, creating three designed to be won by Black Democrats and two that strongly leaned Hispanic.
The districts occasioned criticism, though. By 2015, the League of Women Voters v. Detzner case spurred a change from the Jacksonville-to-Orlando configuration that was represented by Corrine Brown, a map that wove South and west to encompass so-called communities of interest to create a minority-performing district.
DeSantis’ first redistricting in 2022 saw that district deconstructed, and since then others have followed, as the Governor has imposed a “race-neutral” construct. But as he said in D.C., that doesn’t necessarily hurt Democrats if they can get it together, even if it does change minority representation as it once existed.
For now, though, the map looks to give four more pickup opportunities to Republicans, giving them a potential 20 seat advantage in the state’s Delegation.
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