Ron DeSantis GOP nomination odds drop below 13% in betting market

On the Smarkets online betting exchange platform, Ron DeSantis’ odds of winning the Republican presidential nomination continue to find new floors, and are now below 13%.

That’s the worst his chances have been since 2021 in this market, the latest sign that people outside the Governor’s political operation are losing confidence in his ability to topple Donald Trump.

As of this writing, Trump has 69.44% odds, with DeSantis at just 12.82%. Other names are even bigger long shots, meanwhile.

Former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley is at 3.33%, good for third place. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Vice President Mike Pence and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin all are at or above 2%. Twitter broadcaster Tucker Carlson, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and author Vivek Ramaswamy are between 1% and 2%.

Further back, U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, who are not declared candidates, have 0.34% and 0.1% odds, respectively. Meanwhile, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is still not an available option.

DeSantis led Trump as recently as Jan. 18, 40.32% to 34.72%. By April, however, Trump doubled up DeSantis in this market, and the former President’s momentum continues unabated.

The Governor’s long odds aren’t limited to just the Smarkets platform, meanwhile.

The Election Betting Odds aggregator, which includes projections from the BetfairSmarketsPredictIt and Polymarket platforms, shows Trump at 66.8% and DeSantis at 14.2% at this writing.

Polls track with bettor sentiments, meanwhile.

The Race to the White House polling average continues to show a lopsided race, with Trump at 53% and DeSantis continuing to decline, dropping down now to 20%. Pence is at 6%, Ramaswamy is at 4%, and Haley is at 3% in that metric.

The delegate forecast is likewise tough for the Governor. He is forecast to have just 341 if the field never consolidates, and 394 if it does after Nevada. Both numbers are far short of the necessary 1,234 to win the nomination uncontested.

The site projects Trump winning nomination battles in 49 states if the field doesn’t consolidate, as polls show a tie in Utah. If the field does consolidate, DeSantis could win Tennessee and Wisconsin as well.

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