While Gov. Ron DeSantis is in second place in most polling of the Republican presidential race, it appears closed Primaries (such as Florida has) may suit him better than more open ones.
New polling from The Liberal Patriot, which was conducted between June 20 and June 29 by YouGov, shows the Governor well in front of any competition for the runner-up slot with Republicans, but on less secure footing with other groups that say they intend to vote in GOP Primaries.
Among the 947 Republicans polled, Donald Trump leads DeSantis, 55% to 26%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott are tied at 4% each, with former Vice President Mike Pence and author Vivek Ramaswamy each at 3%.
But among the 198 independent voters who say they will vote in Republican Presidential Primaries, the results change. Trump is still well in front with 40% support. But DeSantis and Pence are close for the second-place spot. With 11% and 10%, respectively, the numbers are well within the +/- 1.9-percentage-point margin of error for the whole sample.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Florida and six other states (including early voting Nevada) have closed Primaries. But many other states do not, with many of them (including early voting New Hampshire) allowing independent voters to participate in open Primaries. Others, like Iowa, are “partially open.”
If independent voters are a factor in certain states, especially given the likelihood of President Joe Biden not facing serious competition for the 2024 nomination, then that dilutes DeSantis’ relative strength inside his own party.
Surprisingly, 410 Democrats say they are voting in the GOP Presidential Primary, and five candidates are in low double-digits with that subgroup. Pence leads with 14%, Chris Christie takes 12%, Trump 11%, and DeSantis and Haley tie for 10% with the cohort saying it’s crossing party lines.
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