Betting odds for Ron DeSantis’ bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination have gone south.
On the Smarkets online betting exchange platform, bettors say the Florida Governor has just over a 15% chance of getting the nomination. He fell below that 15% mark on July 4.
At the time of publication, DeSantis stands at just 15.62%, well behind former President Donald Trump.
Trump was over 70% on Independence Day, though he has since fallen to just 69.44%. At that point, DeSantis was at 14.72%.
The nearly 54-point lead is a new development. On July 3, DeSantis was above 21% and Trump was marginally above 67%.
Other names are even more prohibitive long shots than DeSantis.
Former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley is given just a 3.33% chance of winning the nomination by Smarkets bettors.
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is at 2.5%, while former Vice President Mike Pence is at 2.33%.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is another long shot, given a 1.82% chance of winning at this writing.
For those with even more appetites for risk, non-candidates Marco Rubio and Rick Scott also register, with 0.34% and 0.1%, respectively, as of this writing. Meanwhile, declared candidate Francis Suarez doesn’t register at all.
DeSantis led Trump as recently as January 18, 40.32% to 34.72%. By April, however, Trump doubled up DeSantis in this market, and the former President’s momentum continues unabated.
The Race to the White House polling average continues to show a lopsided race, with Trump at 53% and DeSantis at 21%. Pence is at 6%, Vivek Ramaswamy is at 4%, and Haley is at 3% in that metric.
The Governor’s supporters have begun to manage expectations, a worrying sign for those who want to see DeSantis have a chance to export the Florida model nationwide.
Never Back Down spox Steve Cortes has admitted that Trump is the “front-runner” and DeSantis is “way behind” in a recent Twitter Space, in which he also said DeSantis would face challenges against Trump on a debate stage.
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