New polling of the 2024 Republican presidential race offers good news for Donald Trump and red flags for Ron DeSantis.
“Trump’s edge, when it comes to his own party, again appears insurmountable at this early stage of the nominating process,” claims the memo accompanying the latest I&I/TIPP Poll.
The story is a familiar one of traction for Trump and doldrums for DeSantis. The former President’s 55% support gives him “what appears to be an insuperable 36-point lead” over DeSantis’ 19%.
Other names are even further back.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has 6% support, followed by former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley and current South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, both at 3%. Author Vivek Ramaswamy and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu each have 2% support, meanwhile, with other names further back still.
The poll of 482 likely Republican Primary voters was in the field May 31 through June 2, before Trump’s federal indictment and before Sununu ruled out a run for the White House.
The 36-point Trump lead is well above the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points for the Republican and Republican-leaning sample.
This poll is in line with the Race to the White House polling average, which shows the former President with 55% support, against 22% for DeSantis.
Race to the White House, at least at this point, sees a lopsided delegate fight. It forecasts Trump with 1,862 delegates in a crowded field, well above the 1,234 needed to win, with DeSantis mired at 539.
In a field that narrows to Trump and DeSantis after Nevada, the landscape is more forbidding still for the Florida Governor. Trump is projected to have 1,971 delegates in that scenario, with DeSantis garnering just 484.
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